- 1) The market has found its footing. Stability replaced volatility by year-end 2025.
Data Signals:
- December 2025 Closed Sales: 2,514 homes, +1.9% YoY
- Sales Dollar Volume: $1.44B, +1.4% YoY
- Median Sales Price: $435,000, –3.3% YoY
- Takeaway: Price adjustment did not stop transactions. Buyers and sellers found common ground, a hallmark of a functional market. Volume stabilizing before prices is historically a healthy signal.
- 2) Buyers are active — just more deliberate. Demand is present, but patience has replaced urgency.
Data Signals:
- Pending Sales: 1,908 – essentially flat YoY
- Average Days on Market: 88 days – up from 81 days last December
- Months of Inventory: 4.2 months (vs. 3.8 last year)
- Takeaway: Buyers are still writing contracts, but they’re inspecting, negotiating, and comparing options. Deals require agent guidance and follow-through, not speed alone.
- 3) Inventory is a feature, not a flaw. Choice has returned to the Austin housing market.
Data Signals:
- Active Listings: 10,372 homes, +9.2% YoY
- Months of Inventory: Above 4 months metro-wide
- New Listings: Down 7.3% YoY in December (1,905)
- Takeaway: Inventory growth has slowed naturally, suggesting the market is absorbing supply. Buyers finally have meaningful options by price, location, and condition—something Austin lacked for years.
- 4) Pricing strategy is the new superpower. Negotiation is now baked into the process. Skilled pricing wins market share.
Data Signals:
- Average Close-to-Original List Price: 90.6%, – down from 91.9%
- Bastrop County Close-to-List: 89.4%
- Caldwell County Close-to-List: 86.7%
- Takeaway: Pricing discipline is critical—especially in outer counties. Homes that miss the mark face longer timelines and deeper concessions.
- 5) Urban Austin is quietly leading the market. Core locations continue to outperform.
Data Signals (City of Austin, Dec. 2025):
- Closed Sales: 844, +4.1% YoY
- Sales Dollar Volume: $648.7M, +4.8% YoY
- Median Price: $550,000, –3.9% YoY
- Average DOM: 79 days (faster than metro average)
- Takeaway: Despite price softening, demand inside the city remains resilient. Employment density, amenities, and lifestyle continue to support urban housing performance.
- 6) Austin’s economy remains resilient as growth matures. Slower doesn’t mean weaker – it means more sustainable.
Economic Context Indicators:
- Sustained capital investment in advanced manufacturing, including semiconductors and supplier networks
- Major infrastructure expansion underway at Austin–Bergstrom International Airport, signaling long-term regional confidence
- Positive employment growth, albeit slower, in professional services, healthcare, and infrastructure-linked sectors
- Takeaway: Housing markets weaken when jobs disappear—not when growth normalizes. Austin’s economy is moving from explosive expansion to sustainable growth, which supports steady, not speculative, housing demand.
- 7) This is a skill-driven market. Expertise now matters more than timing – this is where professionals differentiate themselves.
Data Signals:
- Higher DOM
- Lower Close-to-List ratios
- Wider spread between strong vs. weak submarkets
- Increased inspection negotiations and concessions
- Takeaway: The frenzy is gone. Today’s market rewards:
-Accurate pricing
-Hyper-local data
-Higher level of inspection negotiations and concessions
- 8) 2026 is shaping up to be a year of consistency, not correction. Expect steadier conditions rather than sharp swings. In 2026, working with an experienced agent, not urgency, will drive success.
Data Signals:
- Inventory ended 2025 at 4.2 months, historically associated with balanced markets
- Price declines in late 2025 were modest and decelerating, not accelerating
- Sales volume stabilized before prices — a typical late-cycle pattern
- Austin job growth slowed but remained positive, with continued investment in manufacturing, healthcare, and infrastructure
- Leasing fundamentals ended 2025 with flat rents and rising supply, reducing inflation pressure on housing costs
- Takeaway: Barring an external shock, 2026 is unlikely to be a year of dramatic price swings. Instead, agents should expect:
- More predictable sales cycles
- Moderate price movement by submarket
- Continued negotiation, but fewer abrupt resets
- A return to seasonal patterns that buyers recognize