Market Report

Central Texas Home Sales Decline Amid Economic Uncertainty

AUSTIN, Texas – According to the 2025-Q1 Central Texas Housing Report released by Unlock MLS, residential home sales across the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA declined to 6,698 listings, a 9.1% drop from the first quarter of 2024. During the same time frame, median sales price dipped 2.3% to $429,869 while housing inventory reached 5.3 months, moving the region closer into balanced housing market conditions.

Quarterly numbers were strongly impacted by March 2025 sales activity, during which the five-county MSA experienced 9.3% fewer sales, gained 9.5% new listings and median sales price remained flat year-over-year.

Clare Knapp, Ph.D., housing economist for Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of REALTORS®, pointed to affordability constraints as well as growing economic headwinds as key factors shaping early-year market activity.

“We started the year with a continuation of similar trends that shaped the market in 2024. However, stubbornly high mortgage rates and a weaker local labor market weighed on buyer confidence, while many sellers remained reluctant to adjust pricing expectations. That squeeze on buyer power shaped much of the activity we saw in the first quarter, reinforcing the need for greater flexibility and balance on both sides of the transaction.”

For the first quarter of 2025, the number of active listings on the market saw an 18.9% increase from 2024-Q1, allowing buyers to benefit from greater choice and negotiating power, leading to longer decision timelines and more strategic purchases. These continued shifts point to a market that is evolving—offering a more thoughtful pace for both buyers and sellers.

Brandy Wuensch, 2025 Unlock MLS and ABoR president, noted that current market conditions are enabling buyers to slow down, weigh their options and make more thoughtful decisions.

“With a wider range of listings to choose from, buyers are using this time to evaluate their choices, be selective and focus on homes that best fit their needs and lifestyle. This shift allows buyers to be more intentional with their decisions and to plan for long-term success. Working with a REALTOR® is essential in this kind of environment someone who understands the nuances of the local market can help buyers navigate every step of the process with confidence and make more informed, strategic moves along the way.”

City of Austin

March 2025 - For Sale

857 – Residential homes sold, 8.9% less than March 2024.
$590,750 – Median price for residential homes, 5.5% more than March 2024.
2,125 – New home listings on the market, 17.3% more than March 2024.
4,363 – Active home listings on the market, 23.7% more than March 2024.
1,013 – Pending sales, 4.2% less than March 2024.
5.2 – Months of inventory, 0.9 months more than March 2024.
$665,174,058 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 4.3% less than March 2024.
94.0% – Average close to list price, compared to 94.6% in March 2024.

March 2025 - For Lease

892 – Closed leases, 5.7% less than March 2024.
$2,450 – Median price for rent, flat compared to March 2024.
1,102 – New lease listings on the market, 6.2% less than March 2024.
1,840 – Active lease listings on the market, 7.9% less than March 2024.
1,036 – Pending leases, 7.0% more than March 2024.
2.1 – Months of inventory, flat compared to March 2024.
$2,202,410 – Total dollar volume of leases, 8.4% less than March 2024.
96.8% – Average close to list price, compared to 95.9% in March 2024.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA

Q1 2025 - For Sale

6,698 – Residential homes sold, 9.1% less than Q1 2024.
$429,869 – Median price for residential homes, 2.3% less than Q1 2024.
12,649 – New home listings on the market, 8.5% more than Q1 2024.
31,930 – Active home listings on the market, 18.9% more than Q1 2024.
7,539 – Pending sales, 6.0% less than Q1 2024.
5.3 – Months of inventory, 1.1 months more than Q1 2024.
$3,440,987,846 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 8.1% less than Q1 2024.
93.5% – Average close to list price, compared to 93.8% in Q1 2024.

March 2025 - For Sale

2,461 – Residential homes sold, 9.3% less than March 2024.
$446,000 – Median price for residential homes, 0.9% less than March 2024.
5,142 – New home listings on the market, 9.5% more than March 2024.
11,659 – Active home listings on the market, 18.8% more than March 2024.
3,064 – Pending sales, 3.1% more than March 2024.
4.8 – Months of inventory, 0.7 months more than March 2024.
$1,447,661,800 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 6.7% less than March 2024.
94.4% – Average close to list price, compared to 94.8% in March 2024.

March 2025 - For Lease

2,021 – Closed leases, 0.2% less than March 2024.
$2,200 – Median price for rent, 4.1% less than March 2024.
2,387 – New lease listings on the market, 1.2% less than March 2024.
3,647 – Active lease listings on the market, 0.9% less than March 2024.
2,283 – Pending leases, 10.9% more than March 2024.
1.8 – Months of inventory, flat compared to March 2024.
$3,946,012 – Total dollar volume of leases, 8.4% less than March 2024.
96.8% – Average close to list price, compared to 97.1% in March 2024.

Travis County

March 2025 - For Sale

1,117 – Residential homes sold, 11.2% less than March 2024.
$529,950 – Median price for residential homes, 4.9% more than March 2024.
2,658 – New home listings on the market, 14.7% more than March 2024.
5,735 – Active home listings on the market, 18.6% more than March 2024.
1,342 – Pending sales, 2.8% less than March 2024.
5.3 – Months of inventory, 1.0 months more than March 2024.
$807,612,791– Total dollar volume of homes sold, 5.7% less than March 2024.
94.0% – Average close to list price, compared to 94.5% in March 2024.

March 2025 - For Lease

1,063 – Closed leases, 0.8% less than March 2024.
$2,350 – Median price for rent, 2.1% less than March 2024.
1,315 – New lease listings on the market, 0.8% more than March 2024.
2,192 – Active lease listings on the market, 2.8% less than March 2024.
1,209 – Pending leases, 11.0% more than March 2024.
2.1 – Months of inventory, flat compared to March 2024.
$2,497,865 – Total dollar volume of leases, 5.0% less than March 2024.
96.9% – Average close to list price, compared to 95.9% in March 2024.

Williamson County

March 2025 - For Sale

818 – Residential homes sold, 9.9% less than March 2024.
$418,000 – Median price for residential homes, 1.6% less than March 2024.
1,550 – New home listings on the market, 11.1% more than March 2024.
3,432 – Active home listings on the market, 26.3% more than March 2024.
1,057 – Pending sales, 1.5% more than March 2024.
4.3 – Months of inventory, 0.8 months more than March 2024.
$387,853,193 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 11.9% less than March 2024.
95.8% – Average close to list price, compared to 95.4% in March 2024.

March 2025 - For Lease

697 – Closed leases, 0.2% less than March 2024.
$2,150 – Median price for rent, 2.3% less than March 2024.
809 – New lease listings on the market, 0.5% more than March 2024.
1,043 – Active lease listings on the market, 4.5% more than March 2024.
795 – Pending leases, 11.8% more than March 2024.
1.5 – Months of inventory, 0.1 months more than March 2024.
$1,130,533 – Total dollar volume of leases, 13.1% less than March 2024.
97.2% – Average close to list price, compared to 99.0% in March 2024.

Hays County

March 2025 - For Sale

370 – Residential homes sold, 5.7% less than March 2024.
$390,000 – Median price for residential homes, 2.0% more than March 2024.
676 – New home listings on the market, 1.5% less than March 2024.
1,704 – Active home listings on the market, 8.5% more than March 2024.
497 – Pending sales, 25.5% more than March 2024.
4.7 – Months of inventory, 0.7 months more than March 2024.
$188,753,811 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 1.3% less than March 2024.
92.8% – Average close to list price, compared to 95.0% in March 2024.

March 2025 - For Lease

211 – Closed leases, 9.4% more than March 2024.
$1,989 – Median price for rent, 7.5% less than March 2024.
236 – New lease listings on the market, 18.6% more than March 2024.
316 – Active lease listings on the market, flat compared to March 2024.
227 – Pending leases, 12.4% more than March 2024.
1.5 – Months of inventory, 0.1 months less than March 2024.
$250,334 – Total dollar volume of leases, 18.1% less than March 2024.
95.4% – Average close to list price, compared to 97.0% in March 2024.

Bastrop County

March 2025 - For Sale

126 – Residential homes sold, 10.2% more than March 2024.
$351,250 – Median price for residential homes, 6.3% less than March 2024.
211 – New home listings on the market, 5.8% less than March 2024.
645 – Active home listings on the market, 23.8% more than March 2024.
119 – Pending sales, 12.3% more than March 2024.
5.3 – Months of inventory, 0.8 months more than March 2024.
$52,713,495 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 6.7% more than March 2024.
93.7% – Average close to list price, compared to 92.2% in March 2024.

March 2025 - For Lease

34 – Closed leases, 26.1% less than March 2024.
$2,200 – Median price for rent, 10.0% more than March 2024.
52 – New lease listings on the market, 15.6% more than March 2024.
69 – Active lease listings on the market, 6.8% less than March 2024.
37 – Pending leases, 5.1% less than March 2024.
2.1 – Months of inventory, 0.5 months more than March 2024.
$55,960 – Total dollar volume of leases, 3.0% less than March 2024.
96.6% – Average close to list price, compared to 96.3% in March 2024.

Caldwell County

March 2025 - For Sale

31 – Residential homes sold, 22.8% less than March 2024.
$336,498 – Median price for residential homes, 10.3% more than March 2024.
47 – New home listings on the market, 38.2% less than March 2024.
143 – Active home listings on the market, 13.3% less than March 2024.
49 – Pending sales, 2.1% more than March 2024.
4.8 – Months of inventory, 0.7 months more than March 2024.
$10,728,511 – Total dollar volume of homes sold, 25.9% less than March 2024.
95.3% – Average close to list price, compared to 92.9% in March 2024.

March 2025 - For Lease

15 – Closed leases, flat compared to March 2024.
$1,895 – Median price for rent, 2.8% less than March 2024.
12 – New lease listings on the market, 53.8% less than March 2024.
27 – Active lease listings on the market, 30.8% less than March 2024.
15 – Pending leases, 16.7% less than March 2024.
1.8 – Months of inventory, 0.8 months less than March 2024.
$11,320 – Total dollar volume of leases, 9.8% less than March 2024.
98.6% – Average close to list price, compared to 96.3% in March 2024.

For the Week of APRIL 14, 2025

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase mortgage applications rocketed up 10% over the prior week, coming in 24% higher than a year ago—the strongest pace in 15 months. Spring homebuying has sprung!

The MBA also revealed its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) increased in March to the highest level in more than two years. They say increases in the MCAI "are indicative of loosening credit."

Data firm Intercontinental Exchange found home price growth slowing in 90% of U.S. markets, cooling to 2.7% in February, then dipping to 2.2% in March, as inventory levels rose to 27% above last year.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

ROLLER COASTER UP... President Trump's 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs sent stocks to historic gains Wednesday, sharp losses Thursday, then a nice rebound Friday that left equities way ahead for the week.

Tariff-induced inflation fears left University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at its lowest level since 2022, yet the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported the first monthly decline in consumer prices since COVID.

Annual CPI inflation dropped from 2.8% to 2.4%—even with higher tariffs already in place on steel, aluminum, and imports from China! Plus, low initial jobless claims showed a solid labor market and an expanding economy.

The week ended with the Dow UP 5.0%, to 40,213; the S&P 500 UP 5.7%, to 5,363; and the Nasdaq UP 7.3%, to 16,274.
Bond prices sank sharply, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% dropping 2.06, to 98.17. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued to trend down in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

HOME BUILDING, MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, RETAIL SALES… Analysts expect Housing Starts to slow a trifle in March, but new Building Permits to hold at their prior pace. We check the MBA Mortgage Applications Index to hopefully see buyer activity staying on its spring climb. The forecast is for Retail Sales to gain in March, a sign consumer spending continues to grow the economy.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The consensus in the futures market is still for the Fed to do a rate cut in June, followed by another in July. Note: In the lower chart, the 20.0% probability of change is an 80.0% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS

May 7 4.25%-4.50%
Jun 18 4.00%-4.25%

Jul 303.75%-4.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS

May 7 20.0%

Jun 18 78.0%

Jul 30 63.7%

Weekly Newsletter by one of Austin's Top Lenders:

The Leaman Team at Loan People
Max Leaman, Jori Stern, Amanda Stewart, Misty Spears, Kristin Bailey & Patty Perez
Great Rates, Low Fees, Close on Time®
Purchase | Refinance | Renovation

3420 Executive Center Drive #300
Austin, TX 78731

Phone: (512) 710-1400
NMLS: 151263
LeamanTeam@LoanPeople.com
https://MaxLeaman.com

Central Austin Real Estate, the CARE Team

Market Report March 2025

Central Texas Home Sales Decline Amid Economic Uncertainty

For the Week of APRIL 14, 2025

Market Report March 2025

Central Texas Home Sales Decline Amid Economic Uncertainty

For the Week of APRIL 14, 2025

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